Why September has felt flat, and what we're doing about it
- Last September dipped in exactly the same way, and picked back up from the last week of the month.
- Two things made it sharper this year: ads cost about 20% more to show, and our Tomato ads have run out of steam while still taking the biggest share of the budget.
- The fix is creative, not structure. Pause the tired ads, test new ones properly, move the Tomato copy to season-neutral lines, and rework our best Tomato video.
1. Why we're seeing the dip
Weekly Meta return on ad spend. Hover over or tap the chart to see each week's figures.
Late August is strong every year, then the first half of September softens. Last year it recovered from around 22 September and October ran at 2.5x. On top of that, ads cost about 20% more to show than in August. Merging into one main campaign in late August wasn't the cause: the two weeks straight after it were our best of the quarter.
2. What's going on with Tomato
Tomato demand is fine. It still makes up about a third of what new customers buy first. What has worn out is the ads. There's been no fresh Tomato creative since mid-August, our best Tomato ad slid from 3.0x to about 1.2x, and Meta kept giving Tomato 40% to 60% of the budget as it faded. The Autumn range was returning nearly 2x on half the money.
| Week of | Tomato share of spend | Tomato return | Autumn range return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul | 34% | 2.75x | not live |
| 24 Aug | 59% | 1.98x | not live |
| 7 Sep | 48% | 1.48x | 1.98x |
| 14 Sep | 40% | 1.31x | 1.94x |
3. What we've paused, what's coming back, and what needs re-editing
Paused
Seven ads that had clearly faded: five Tomato and two Orangery. Each had spent enough to judge, cost well over £50 per sale, and was doing worse than a fortnight before.
Spend and return for 7 to 21 September, against the fortnight before.
was 2.06x
was 1.79x
was 1.99x
was 6.81x
was 2.42x
was 2.88x
was 1.57x
Four Tomato ads stay live because they're still paying their way, so Tomato doesn't go dark while new creative is made.
Coming back with new copy
Two strong older Tomato ads. Both did well in the summer, then stopped getting budget rather than stopped working. Neither comes back with its old text: every line on both mentions summer, June or "limited". They return with the new season-neutral copy once you've approved it.
The customer's review in the image says "summer in a candle". They're a real customer's words, so we won't edit them. This one runs only until the new customer-quote versions (section 6, step 3) are ready.
Nothing seasonal in the image, so new text is all it needs.
Needs re-editing
Two ads say summer in the voiceover itself, so new copy can't fix them.
Still running. Says summer three times in the voiceover and calls Tomato "new". Keeps running until the re-edit is ready. Also runs as Ad 815.
Paused. One line of the voiceover says "summer garden". It's over product footage, so it's an easy line to replace, and then it can come back.
Flora's video is our biggest Tomato video and has worked too well to retire. It opens with "I have just found the scent of the summer" and ends on "summer in a candle". We either reshoot the opening or re-edit it with a new voiceover. Most of it is product footage with her voice over the top, so new lines drop straight in. Only the first three seconds show her face.
4. How we'll test new ads
- New ideas go into a test campaign first, with enough budget behind each one to give a real answer in a week. Today the test budget is spread too thin to judge most ads.
- Winners move into the main campaign once a week, in one batch, keeping their likes and comments.
- For every ad we add, one tired ad comes out, so the main campaign stays focused.
- Fresh versions of a proven ad (a new opening on a format that already works) can skip the test, a few at a time, so Tomato gets new creative quickly.
What goes where for Tomato
Staying in the main campaign nowThe four Tomato ads still paying their way: the maker favourite image (483), the Three Wick image (489) and Flora's video (551, also running as 815). The two images switch to the new copy once you've approved it. Flora's video keeps its current copy until the re-edit replaces it, because changing the text would reset its likes and shares.
Straight into the main campaignThe two proven ads coming back (699 and 474), new versions of the customer-quote image, and the unboxing video once its one line is replaced. These have already proven themselves, so only the copy or a few words are new. For their first week we'll use Meta's creative test, which splits part of the budget evenly across them, so we know which ones work in days rather than weeks. After that they just carry on.
Flora's video, once re-editedAlso goes straight into the main campaign, but as a head-to-head with the original. We'll make two or three versions with different openings, run them alongside the original for their first week with the spend split evenly, and keep whichever wins. If none of them hold up against the original, the original keeps running while we try again.
Test campaign firstBrand-new ideas, and the older Tomato ads that did well on small budgets in the summer but never had a fair run. Anything that passes moves across in the weekly batch.
The copy doesn't need its own test. Every ad carries all five primaries and five headlines, Meta rotates them, and we can see which lines win.
5. Tomato copy is summer-heavy
About three quarters of the text showing in Tomato ads talks about summer: "greenhouse in July", "summer in a candle", "limited run for summer only". It isn't measurably costing us yet, but it will read worse every week into autumn. And if Tomato is staying in the range, the "limited" and "you won't see again" lines are no longer true.
The copy: we've written a season-neutral set for Tomato that keeps everything that works (the greenhouse scent, the Isle of Wight collaboration, the hand-thrown Pott, the refills) and drops the summer and "limited" wording. We're deliberately not writing it for autumn: autumn is short, gifting and Christmas take over from November in their own campaign, and Tomato is a fresh, green scent, not a cosy one. Copy that doesn't mention a season won't need rewriting in six weeks.
Flora's video and one other ad say summer in the voiceover itself. They're under "Needs re-editing" in section 3.
6. Next steps for Tomato
In order. The aim is to keep Tomato selling while it gets fresh creative, and stop it taking most of the budget on tired ads.
- Done: paused the five tired Tomato ads, and kept the four that still pay their way. Tomato stays live the whole time, just on the ads that are still working.
- Bring back two proven Tomato ads with new copy. The customer-review image (2.6x in July's test) and the Three Wick collaboration ad (3.5x over its life), both shown in section 3. None of their old text comes back, because all of it talks about summer. They go live on season-neutral lines.
- New versions of our best Tomato format, the customer-quote image. The original has worn out after £9,400 of spend, but the format hasn't. New quotes and new openings go straight into the main campaign, up to three a week.
- Test the older Tomato ads that never had a fair run. Several did well on small budgets in the summer. The best three or four go into the test campaign, and anything that passes moves across in the weekly batch.
- Approve the season-neutral Tomato copy. It's ready for you on its own page, where you can edit or approve each line. Once it's signed off, it goes on every Tomato ad except Flora's video, which gets its re-edit instead (changing the text would reset its likes and shares).
- Re-edit Flora's video and the unboxing video. Flora's starts once we hear back about her and the files; the original keeps running until the new version builds up its own likes and shares. The unboxing video needs one voiceover line replaced.
What we need from you
- Approve the new Tomato copy on this page. Edit anything you like; it saves as you go, then press Send to Casey.
- Is Tomato staying in the range through autumn? That decides whether any "limited" wording can stay.
- Could Flora re-record a few lines, ideally re-filming the three-second opening on her phone?
- Does whoever edited her video still have the original project files? The captions are burned in, so re-editing cleanly needs the version without captions.
We'll judge the month from 28 September, when last year's recovery was well under way. Happy to go through any of this in more detail on a call.